Real estate brokers say rising mortgage rates derail early 2026 housing rebound
Mortgage rates rose from 6.23% to 6.94% after Iran conflict escalation, and brokers now expect about 4 million home sales in 2026.
Existing home sales
Auto Added by WPeMatico
Housing affordability is improving as wages outpace home-price growth
Inventory is 1.56 million with 4.6 months of supply, helping keep 1.8% home-price growth below wage gains running near 3.5%.
Inventory growth making housing more affordable
With inventory at multiyear highs, NAR prices are up 0.9% year over year versus 3.6% wage growth, easing affordability pressure.
Why is housing inventory growth slowing down in 2026?
Inventory is up from record lows, but new listings remain below normal, keeping 2026 growth rates below last year’s peak.
Housing market is poised for growth in 2026 if Iran conflict doesn’t raise rates
2026 demand data is positive, but Iran-driven energy costs, 15% tariffs, and Fed hawks could push mortgage rates above 6.25%.
Mortgage rates steady near 6.15% as oil and jobs data pose risks
30-year mortgage rates hovered near 6.15% as employer payrolls fell by 92,000 in February and markets expected no Fed rate cut next week.
Housing demand is off to a solid start in 2026
Mortgage rates and spreads stabilize, driving growth in home sales and inventory for the 2026 housing market.
Existing home sales outlook improves as mortgage rates stabilize
Normalized mortgage spreads and steady rates may drive the first real year of home sales growth since 2021.
Logan Mohtashami’s 2026 housing forecast
Inventory is back to normal and mortgage rates are forecast between 5.75% and 6.75%, shaping a steadier housing market in 2026.
Home price growth slows, affordability pressures persist
Despite a modest home price uptick, growth remains near its weakest pace since mid-2023 and continues to trail consumer inflation.