Will mortgage rates rise to 8% or drop to 6%?
Mortgage spreads, the Iran conflict and the economy are key
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Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7%
Mortgage spreads continue to soften the blow amid Iran conflict
Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026
Last week’s data was really impacted by comparisons to Labor Day weekend in 2025
Housing demand has slowed, but still stable for now
New listings data is still positive year-over-year
What can the government do to lower mortgage rates?
They have levers to pull, but not before some issues get resolved
Inventory edges slightly higher year over year as rates rise
Inventory rose to 871,063 in mid-August as rates stayed near highs, while pending sales fell year over year and price cuts hit 41.67%.
Mortgage spreads keeping housing demand intact for now
Mortgage spreads at 2.01% are keeping 2026 mortgage rates near 6.74%, supporting pending sales and limiting year-over-year declines.
The housing market defies expectations even with higher rates
Last week, as the 10-year yield hit 4.74%, weekly pending sales rose to 69,109 and while inventory increased to 872,932.
Home sales are positive but higher rates slowing demand
Spreads were 1.94%, keeping rates below 7%, while purchase apps were up 0.2% yearly and pending sales held near flat.
Can the housing market weather Iran conflict 2.0 and higher rates?
Weekly housing indicators suggest a modest cooling as mortgage rates spent most of last week above 6.64% and the Iran conflict escalates.