The housing market defies expectations even with higher rates
Last week, as the 10-year yield hit 4.74%, weekly pending sales rose to 69,109 and while inventory increased to 872,932.
Mortgage Rates
Auto Added by WPeMatico
Real estate brokers say rising mortgage rates derail early 2026 housing rebound
Mortgage rates rose from 6.23% to 6.94% after Iran conflict escalation, and brokers now expect about 4 million home sales in 2026.
Home sales are positive but higher rates slowing demand
Spreads were 1.94%, keeping rates below 7%, while purchase apps were up 0.2% yearly and pending sales held near flat.
How high can mortgage rates go with Iran conflict 2.0?
As the 10-year nears 4.60%, rates could test 6.75%, but improved spreads and pricing suggest an upside cap near 7.25%.
Can the housing market weather Iran conflict 2.0 and higher rates?
Weekly housing indicators suggest a modest cooling as mortgage rates spent most of last week above 6.64% and the Iran conflict escalates.
Can mortgage rates survive hawkish Fed talk during inflation week?
Markets watch monthly core inflation prints and conflict headlines as the 10-year holds near 4.60% and Fed tone stays hawkish.
Iran conflict lifts mortgage rates, but housing demand stays positive
Pending sales rose to 63,971 versus 61,143 in 2025, inventory ended at 844,011, and price cuts were 39.57% versus 41%.
Mortgage rates rise past 6.75% as inflation uncertainty persists
30-year conforming rates averaged 6.77%, with jumbo at 6.75%, as Fed messaging stayed hawkish and 1-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7%.
Better mortgage spreads are still keeping home sales positive
Mortgage spreads improved to 2.01%, keeping rates near 6.60% as total pending sales rose to 422,120 vs 396,652 last year.
Why mortgage rates are rising, not falling, with oil under $70
A hawkish Fed outlook is anchoring the 10-year near 4.46% to 4.48%, keeping mortgage rates near 6.50% to 6.75% despite oil.