Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7%
Mortgage spreads continue to soften the blow amid Iran conflict
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Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026
Last week’s data was really impacted by comparisons to Labor Day weekend in 2025
Housing demand has slowed, but still stable for now
New listings data is still positive year-over-year
What can the government do to lower mortgage rates?
They have levers to pull, but not before some issues get resolved
Inventory edges slightly higher year over year as rates rise
Inventory rose to 871,063 in mid-August as rates stayed near highs, while pending sales fell year over year and price cuts hit 41.67%.
The housing market defies expectations even with higher rates
Last week, as the 10-year yield hit 4.74%, weekly pending sales rose to 69,109 and while inventory increased to 872,932.
Home sales are positive but higher rates slowing demand
Spreads were 1.94%, keeping rates below 7%, while purchase apps were up 0.2% yearly and pending sales held near flat.
Can the housing market weather Iran conflict 2.0 and higher rates?
Weekly housing indicators suggest a modest cooling as mortgage rates spent most of last week above 6.64% and the Iran conflict escalates.
Iran conflict lifts mortgage rates, but housing demand stays positive
Pending sales rose to 63,971 versus 61,143 in 2025, inventory ended at 844,011, and price cuts were 39.57% versus 41%.
Better mortgage spreads are still keeping home sales positive
Mortgage spreads improved to 2.01%, keeping rates near 6.60% as total pending sales rose to 422,120 vs 396,652 last year.