Mortgage rates face several hurdles before they can return to 6%
Inflation, Fed guidance and spreads all play a role with higher rates, Logan Mohtashami says
Inflation
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Can mortgage rates survive hawkish Fed talk during inflation week?
Markets watch monthly core inflation prints and conflict headlines as the 10-year holds near 4.60% and Fed tone stays hawkish.
Mortgage rates rise past 6.75% as inflation uncertainty persists
30-year conforming rates averaged 6.77%, with jumbo at 6.75%, as Fed messaging stayed hawkish and 1-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7%.
Why Fed President Beth Hammack wants more rate hikes
Oil is near $70, but Fed hawks cite sticky inflation and full employment, keeping rate hikes in play and mortgage rates from falling.
Why mortgage rates haven’t followed oil prices by moving lower
Many people in the housing industry are wondering why mortgage rates haven’t fallen even as oil prices have dropped from $111 per barrel to less than $73 today. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.48% and mortgage rates are near their yearly highs.
Will the Fed really hike rates 3 times in 2026, per Bank of America?
BofA forecasts three quarter-point Fed hikes in 2026, but market pricing and a 10-year yield near 4.51% argue for 0 to only one rate hike.
What to look for in Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting
With oil at $75.80 and mortgage rates near 6.50%, housing is watching whether Warsh can keep the Fed patient on hikes.
Continued Iran conflict raises mortgage rate risk into late 2026
If the Iran conflict lasts five to six more months, the peak mortgage rate could run 0.375% to 0.435% above 6.75% despite better spreads.
Housing demand stays positive with mortgage rates near 2026 highs
Weekly pending sales increased to 75,935 versus 69,636, and purchase apps were up 7% year over year despite higher mortgage rates.
What happens to mortgage rates if the Iran conflict is over?
Getting the 10-year yield and mortgage rates to pre-conflict lows will be harder than people think even if this conflict is truly over.