Housing starts overachieved in March amid warning signs aplenty
March starts reached 1.5 million, single-family 1.03 million, while permits fell 10.8% and completions dropped 13.5% year over year.
Housing Starts
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White House backs deregulation as it looks to address estimated 10M housing deficit
White House ties housing costs to overregulation and a deficit of 10 million single-family homes as builders face high costs and shrinking margins.
New home sales still at multiyear highs
New home sales remain steady at 745,000 in December 2025, while housing permits show no growth and inventory declines.
December jobs data continues to support lower mortgage rates
December jobs growth slowed to 50,000, keeping mortgage rates near 6% with steady and Trump’s MBS move supporting better spreads.
Housing starts fall to lowest point since 2020, led by a stall in the Sun Belt
Housing starts fell 7.8% year-over-year in October, led by steep declines in the Sunbelt and Mountain West regions.
Single-family construction is getting worse due to rates
Thanks to Fed policy, data on single-family construction is not improving; in fact, it is getting worse.
Rising mortgage rates zap builder confidence
The recent rise in mortgage rates, approaching 7.25%, has negatively affected builder sentiment. They need rates in the 6-6.5% range to grow.
The election is over, but mortgage rates have yet to change course
The trend line for mortgage rates has been the same for several weeks, even as some of the uncertainty tied to the election is fading.