The most notable housing trend for me in 2024 and 2025 has been inventory growth, particularly the increase in new listings during this time. I had set a minimal target of 80,000 new listings per week for 2025 and we’ve met that goal two times this year. However, the data for new listings is losing momentum. Last week, the inventory growth was particularly slow compared to previous weeks, and new listings data fell.
New listings data
I am excited that new listings data has shown growth year over year in 2025, and we have reached my minimum target of 80,000 during the seasonal peak period of this data line. However, I was hoping for more weeks between 80,000 and 100,000, which would be very normal. So far this year, we haven’t seen that in the data line, and this week saw a slight decline from the previous week.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s last week’s new listings data over the past two years:
- 2025: 76,181
- 2024: 71,666
Weekly housing inventory data
The best narrative for housing in 2025 is that active inventory levels are reaching the lower end of the 2019 inventory levels. It has taken a long time to approach pre-pandemic levels, and while a few states have already achieved this, it marks a significant improvement compared to the severely low levels of 2020-2022. Although this week saw slow inventory growth, the year has been positive overall.
- Weekly inventory change (June 13-June 30): Inventory rose from 825,761 to 828,890
- The same week last year (June 14-June 21): Inventory rose from 620,622 to 634,120
Price-cut percentage
In a typical year, about one-third of homes experience price reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many homeowners adjust their sale prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates stay elevated.
For my 2025 price forecast, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will likely see negative real home prices again. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% increase proved inaccurate, primarily because mortgage rates fell toward 6% and demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, home prices ended up increasing by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025. Here are the percentages of homes that saw price reductions last week over the last two years:
- 2025: 40%
- 2024: 37%
Purchase application data
The purchase application data has been a standout line for 2025, as we have shown 20 consecutive weeks of year-over-year growth. Now, if mortgage rates were near 6%, this data would not be shocking at all; however, we have been hovering near 7% for most of the year. I would not have taken this bet if someone had told me the data would be this late in June.
Here is the weekly data for 2025:
- 11 positive readings
- 9 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
- 20 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Weekly pending sales
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. Still, last week’s data showed year-over-year growth in our weekly pending sales.
Weekly pending sales for last week over the last two years:
- 2025: 70,352
- 2024: 67,087
Total pending sales
The latest weekly data on total pending sales from Altos offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, mortgage rates around 6% are necessary for significant growth in the housing market. Although total pending home sales are slightly higher than last year, it’s surprising to see this data remain steady despite elevated rates in 2025. As you can see in the chart below, the seasonal peak period is over, and the seasonal decline in the data has begun.
Weekly pending sales for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 405,766
- 2024: 396,149
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%
Last week was eventful, marked by essential data, a Federal Reserve meeting, and statements from President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte criticizing Powell. Despite all this, there wasn’t a significant movement in bond yields or mortgage rates. Things have calmed down considerably since the implementation of the Godzilla tariffs, with talks of potential deals underway. Last week, mortgage rates just moved from 6.91% to 6.86%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads as the markets dealt with the tariffs, but things have improved as the market has calmed down. It’s been critical to see spreads get better on days when the 10-year yield goes up because that limits the damage of a higher 10-year yield.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.70% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.80% to 0.60% % lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have typically ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
The week ahead: Home sales, home price data and Fed speeches
This week, we will be seeing both existing and new home sales data being released. For existing home sales, I hope to see the monthly sales figures stay above 4 million again. Regarding new home sales, I will be monitoring whether the trend of negative revisions continues. We will also get home price data, which should indicate a cooling trend in home prices. Additionally, jobless claims data will come on Thursday; this data line is elevated for 2025 so far.
We will also hear from many Fed presidents this week, and it’s always good to see how the bond market reacts to each of their talking points.